Russia’s Threat To Israel: What You Need To Know

When the war in Ukraine began, the world watched Russia tighten its grip across Eastern Europe, but few anticipated how its regional ambitions and military posturing would increasingly intersect with Israel’s national security. Far from distant observers, Israel faces a complex, evolving threat from Moscow—rooted in proxy warfare, intelligence manipulation, energy leverage, and a growing willingness to challenge Western dominance through asymmetric means. This evolving dynamic reshapes security calculations in the Middle East, demanding a deeper understanding of how Russia’s actions in and beyond Ukraine are directly influencing Israel’s strategic environment.

The core of Russia’s threat lies not in full-scale invasion of Israeli territory—but in leveraging military presence and proxies in neighboring theaters to undermine Israeli deterrence, test Western alliances, and expand its influence. Following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russia reinforced its strategic posture through military deployments to Syria, where it established and maintains airbases enabling sustained air operations and missile strikes across the region. This presence not only serves as a linchpin for Moscow’s war effort but also positions Russian forces within striking distance of multiple regional flashpoints.

Mudros Agreement and Syrian Proxies: A Looming Risk In 2020, Russia brokered the Mudros Agreement with Israel—a second-tier understanding allowing Moscow to keep troops in legitimate silicon desert batteries while maintaining a fragile cooperation against shared enemies like Iran. Yet, this delicate détente has frayed as Iran and its proxy networks expand operations from Syria into northern Israel. Russian-instigated attacks, including drone and missile strikes on Israeli military assets in Syria, have surged, with experts citing at least 40 documented strikes between 2023 and 2024.

“Russia’s tolerance for Iranian proxies operating in Syria is no passive oversight—it’s enablement,” says Dr. Elena Alexandrova, a Middle East security analyst at the University of Haifa. “Each attack compels Israel to divert resources from other fronts, weakening its existing deterrence calculus.” For electors in Israel and Western capitals, this blurring of lines between proxy and direct threat complicates intelligence assessments and policy responses.

Military Posturing and Technological Escalation Russia’s evolving military doctrine in the Middle East incorporates advanced drone systems, long-range artillery, and electronic warfare capabilities—tools Israel previously viewed as niche threats. Recent strikes leveraging Iranian-made drones and UAVs, enhanced by Russian guidance systems, have demonstrated precision capabilities that bypass traditional air defenses. Israeli military officials report intercepting system failures and targeting errors tied to these hybrid threats, raising alarms about a shifting battlefield dominated by swarm tactics and digital disruption.

Beyond drones, Moscow’s growing drone fleet—which includes Iranian Shahed facilities and domestic platforms—has tested Israel’s robust countermeasures. “We’ve seen these attacks evolve from terrorism to strategic signaling,” notes Major General Ayala Holzer, Director of Israel’s Home Front Command. “They’re not just about causing damage—they’re about testing Israel’s limits and probing the effectiveness of layered defenses.” Weapon Exports and Covert Leverage A lesser-known but significant dimension of the threat is Russia’s unwavering arms trade to Iran.

Despite global sanctions, Moscow supplies Tehran with hypersonic missiles, air defense systems, and missile guidance tech—enabling Iran to augment its regional arsenal. These weapons indirectly empower groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, enhancing their capacity to strike Israeli cities with greater accuracy and range. “This arms pipeline is a quiet escalation,” warns Dr.

Roula Khalaf, a defense analyst with Reuters Institute. “Russia doesn’t need to fight Israel directly; it fuels the means through which others can threaten it.” Western allies, particularly the United States, have repeatedly pressed Moscow to curb supplies, but limited leverage means Russia continues to expand its influence. Cyber and Information Warfare: Silent Einfluss Cyberattacks represent another frontier where Russia’s threat manifests with precision.

Israeli critical infrastructure, including energy grids, water systems, and communication networks, has faced sophisticated intrusions reportedly enabled by Soviet-era hacking kits and modernized Russian cyber units. These intrusions aim to degrade resilience, sow public panic, and undermine trust in state institutions. “In the shadow war, Russia exploits vulnerabilities no missile can breach,” observes Dr.

Yaron Ezrahi, director of Israel’s Cyber Security Division. “A single breach can disable emergency services or corrupt data—threatening national continuity in ways harder to defend.” Combined with disinformation campaigns amplifying social divisions, cyber operations deepen strategic uncertainty. Diplomatic Maneuvering and Strategic Ambiguity